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Flash flood hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment in Wadi Feiran Basin, Southwestern Sinai, Egypt, using the analytic hierarchy process and geospatial techniques

Research Abstract

Flash floods are among the most dangerous natural hazards, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, where their sudden onset can lead to devastating impacts. This study presents an integrated assessment of flash flood hazards and risks in the Wadi Feiran Basin, a hyper-arid region in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula that experiences recurring flood events. Surface runoff was estimated using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method, incorporating spatial datasets on hydrology, topography, and land use. A comprehensive risk assessment was then carried out by integrating the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) within a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework to generate three key models: a Flood Hazard Index (FHI), a Vulnerability Index (VI), and a combined Flood Risk Index (FRI). Results show that approximately 14.5% of the basin falls in the high flood hazard zone, and nearly 30% is classified as very highly vulnerable. The FRI model highlights that 14.5% of the area is at very high risk, while 23.5% is at high risk. Critically exposed zones include urban settlements in Feiran city, northeastern Saint Catherine, and main roads connecting to Dahab and Abu Zenima. The region's cultural and touristic significance further amplifies the consequences of such hazards. This study offers essential spatial tools and decision-support data for policymakers, urban planners, and disaster risk managers to prioritize mitigation, strengthen infrastructure resilience, and guide sustainable development in Wadi Feiran and similar arid, flood-prone regions.

Research Authors
Eltaher M. Shams, Ahmed A. Asmoay, Abrar Abdel-Salam, Sahar N. E. Tawfik & Rashad Sawires
Research Date
Research Department
Research Journal
Natural Hazards
Research Member
Research Pages
382
Research Rank
Q1 Web of Science
Research Vol
122
Research Website
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-026-08090-0
Research Year
2026