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Variance-based global sensitivity analysis for rear-end crash investigation using deep learning

Research Abstract

Traffic accidents are rare events with inconsistent spatial and temporal dimensions; thus, accident injury severity (INJ-S) analysis faces a significant challenge in its classification and data stability. While classical statistical models have limitations in accurately modeling INJ-S, advanced machine learning methods have no apparent equations to prioritize/analyze different contributing factors to predict INJ-S levels. Also, the intercorrelations among the input factors could make the results of a typical sensitivity analysis misleading. Rear-end accidents constitute the most frequent type of traffic accidents; and therefore, their associated INJ-S need more insight investigations. To resolve all these issues, this study presents a sophisticated approach based on a deep learning paradigm combined with a Variance-Based Globa1 Sensitivity Analysis (VB/GSA). The methodology proposes a deep residual neural networks structure that utilizes residual shortcuts (i.e., connections), unlike other neural network architectures. The connections allow the DRNNs to bypass a few layers in the deep network architecture, circumventing the regular training with high accuracy problems. The Monte Carlo simulation with the aid of the trained DRNNs model was conducted to investigate the impact of each explanatory factor on the INJ-S levels based on the VB/GSA. The developed methodology was used to analyze all rear-end accidents in North Carolina from 2010 to 2017. The performance of the developed methodology was evaluated utilizing some selected representative indicators and then compared with the well-known ordered logistic regression (OLR) model. The developed methodology was found to achieve an overall accuracy of 83% and attained a superior performance, as compared with the OLR model. Furthermore, the VB/GSA analysis could identify the most significant attributes to rear-end crashes INJ-S level.

Research Authors
Ghada S Moussa, Mahmoud Owais, Essam Dabbour
Research Date
Research Department
Research Journal
Accident Analysis & Prevention
Research Pages
106514
Research Publisher
Pergamon
Research Rank
Q1
Research Vol
165
Research Website
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2021.106514
Research Year
2022

OPTIMAL CIRCULAR BUS ROUTES PLANNING FOR TRANSIT NETWORK DESIGN PROBLEM IN URBAN AREAS

Research Abstract

This paper presents a deterministic solution methodology for Transit route Network Design Problem (TrNDP). The main objective is to design a set of bus routes minimizing both users and operator costs while satisfying some constraints; such as minimum demand trips coverage, maximum bus route length and route directness. The proposed methodology provides an efficient set of circular closed bus routes. The formulation of the methodology consists of three parts; 1- representation of transit route network and input data, 2- representation of transit route network objectives and constraints as mathematical programming, 3- the structure of the solution methodology for bus route design. The methodology structure has been tested through Mandl’s benchmark network problem. The test results showed that the methodology developed in this study is able to improve a given network solution in terms of number of constructed routes, transit service coverage, transfer directness, and solution reliability. Based on the presented methodology, a more robust network optimization tool would be produced for public transportation planning purposes.

Research Authors
Mahmoud Owais, Ghada Moussa, Yousef Abbas, Mohamed El-Shabrawy
Research Department
Research Journal
Journal of Engineering Sciences,
Research Member
Research Pages
1447-1466
Research Publisher
Assiut University, Faculty of Engineering
Research Vol
41(4)
Research Website
https://dx.doi.org/10.21608/jesaun.2013.114867
Research Year
2013

Urban Transportation Planning

Description

 

Transportation planning is the process of defining future policies, goals, investments, and spatial planning designs to prepare for future needs to move people and goods to destinations. As practiced today, it is a collaborative process that incorporates the input of many stakeholders including various government agencies, the public and private businesses. Transportation planners apply a multi-modal and/or comprehensive approach to analyzing the wide range of alternatives and impacts on the transportation system to influence beneficial outcomes.

Transportation planning is also commonly referred to as transport planning internationally, and is involved with the evaluation, assessment, design, and siting of transport facilities (generally streetshighwaysbike lanes, and public transport lines).

Transportation systems of regional and national extent are composed of networks of interconnected facilities and services. It follows that nearly all transportation projects must be analyzed with due consideration for their position within a modal or intermodal network and for their impacts on network performance. That is, the network context of a transportation project is usually very important. The subject of national transportation networks may be approached from at least two
different perspectives. One approach, common to most introductory transportation textbooks, describes the physical elements of the various transport modes and their classification into functional subsystems. A second approach focuses on the availability of national transportation network databases and their use for engineering planning and operations studies. The latter approach is emphasized in this chapter, with the aim of providing the reader with some guidance on obtaining and using such networks. In describing these network databases, however, some high-level descriptions of the physical networks are also provided.
 

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