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A revised scope in different prognostic models in cirrhotic patients: Current and future perspectives, an Egyptian experience

Research Abstract
Abstract Background and study aim: The prognosis of cirrhosis is of great interest for liver transplantation and new therapies of related complications. Traditional prognostic models such as Child–Pugh (CP) and Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) were developed to predict mortality in decompensated cirrhosis, but lack parameter(s) related to complications. Recently, new models such as creatinine-modified Child–Turcotte–Pugh (CrCTP) and sodium-based MELD variants were developed to improve prognostic accuracy and enhance outcome predictive capability. Our aim was to investigate the prognostic ability of these models and their relation to complications among Egyptian cirrhotic patients to determine the best one and to assess adding new variables to improve the prognostic ability of that model. Patients and methods: A total of 1000 cirrhotic patients were enrolled in a retrospective study; traditional and new prognostic models such as CP, MELD, CrCTP, integrated MELD (iMELD), MELD plus sodium (MELD-Na, MELDNa) and MELD:sodium ratio (MESO) were calculated. The predictive abilities of prognostic models were compared using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and 1-year survival rates were evaluated by Kaplan–Meier survival analysis. An index of cirrhosis-related complications was added to reveal the best prognostic model. Results: Using AUC, MELD and its sodium variants was significantly better than CP and CrCTP scores in predicting risk of 1-year mortality, where MELD-sodium (MELD-Na) had the highest AUC (0.743). Adding an index of cirrhosis-related complications (C) to MELD-Na creating a new scoring system (MELD-Na-C) improved its prognostic accuracy (AUC 0.753). Kaplan–Meier survival curves predicted increased mortality with higher prognostic scores. Conclusions: All prognostic models were good predictors of 1-year mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis; however, MELD-Na was the best for outcome prediction. MELD-Na-C was a new model enhancing the predictive accuracy in assessing cirrhotic patients with related complications.
Research Authors
Elham Ahmed Hassan
Abeer Sharaf El-Din Abd El
Research Journal
Arab Journal of Gastroenterology
Research Pages
158–164
Research Publisher
ELSEVIER
Research Rank
1
Research Vol
14 (4)
Research Website
www.arabjg.eg.net
Research Year
2013

Pre-treatment role of inosine triphosphate pyrophosphatase polymorphism for predicting anemia in Egyptian hepatitis C virus patients

Research Authors
Abeer Sharaf Eldin
Research Journal
World journal of gastroenterology: WJG
Research Rank
1
Research Year
2013

Evaluation of serum lactate and neuron specific enolase as predictors of hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy in term neonates

Research Authors
Hosny M.A. El-Masry * Emad M. Hammed ** Ahmad .R.Ahmad** Nafisa H.R Abdelaziz ** and H.H.AMIN ***
Pediatric Department Al-Azhar University *, Pediatric Department Assiut University** and Clinical Pathology Department Al-Azhar University ***
Research Journal
The Egyptian Journal Of Neonatology
Research Pages
83-96
Research Rank
2
Research Vol
Vol.(12) No.(2)
Research Year
2011

Evaluation of serum lactate and neuron specific enolase as predictors of hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy in term neonates

Research Authors
Hosny M.A. El-Masry * Emad M. Hammed ** Ahmad .R.Ahmad** Nafisa H.R Abdelaziz ** and H.H.AMIN ***
Pediatric Department Al-Azhar University *, Pediatric Department Assiut University** and Clinical Pathology Department Al-Azhar University ***
Research Department
Research Journal
The Egyptian Journal Of Neonatology
Research Pages
83-96
Research Rank
2
Research Vol
Vol.(12) No.(2)
Research Year
2011

Evaluation of serum lactate and neuron specific enolase as predictors of hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy in term neonates

Research Authors
Hosny M.A. El-Masry * Emad M. Hammed ** Ahmad .R.Ahmad** Nafisa H.R Abdelaziz ** and H.H.AMIN ***
Pediatric Department Al-Azhar University *, Pediatric Department Assiut University** and Clinical Pathology Department Al-Azhar University ***
Research Department
Research Journal
The Egyptian Journal Of Neonatology
Research Member
Research Pages
83-96
Research Rank
2
Research Vol
Vol.(12) No.(2)
Research Year
2011

Effect of folic acid and vitamin B12 supplementation on serum homocysteine and glomerular filtration rate in children with chronic renal failure

Research Authors
Hanaa A. Mohammad, Ahmad R. Ahmad, Hanan G. Abd Elazeem* and Eman M. Monazea
Research Journal
GEGET
Research Rank
2
Research Year
2010

Effect of folic acid and vitamin B12 supplementation on serum homocysteine and glomerular filtration rate in children with chronic renal failure

Research Authors
Hanaa A. Mohammad, Ahmad R. Ahmad, Hanan G. Abd Elazeem* and Eman M. Monazea
Research Journal
GEGET
Research Rank
2
Research Year
2010

Effect of folic acid and vitamin B12 supplementation on serum homocysteine and glomerular filtration rate in children with chronic renal failure

Research Authors
Hanaa A. Mohammad, Ahmad R. Ahmad, Hanan G. Abd Elazeem* and Eman M. Monazea
Research Department
Research Journal
GEGET
Research Rank
2
Research Year
2010

Effect of folic acid and vitamin B12 supplementation on serum homocysteine and glomerular filtration rate in children with chronic renal failure

Research Authors
Hanaa A. Mohammad, Ahmad R. Ahmad, Hanan G. Abd Elazeem* and Eman M. Monazea
Research Department
Research Journal
GEGET
Research Member
Research Rank
2
Research Year
2010

Echocardiography predictors of left atrial thrombus and spontaneous echo contrast in children and adolescents with mitral valve disease

Research Authors
AMR A YOUSSEF*; AHMAD ROSHDY AHMAD; FAROUK E HASSANEIN; FAISEL A AHMAD
Research Department
Research Journal
The Egyptian Heart Journal
Research Member
Research Pages
493- 499
Research Rank
2
Research Vol
Vol.(58) No.(3)
Research Year
2006
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