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Modeling Bursts and Heavy Tails in Inter-Arrival Claims in Non-Life Insurance

ملخص البحث

Current insurance models, assuming that inter-arrival time of claims, are distributed randomly and thus well approximated by Poisson processes. Here we provide clear proof that the timing of inter-claims fits by non-Poisson patterns, marked by rapid events, separated by long periods of inactivity. The time of inter-arrival claims will be heavy tailed, most claims will be executed quickly, while a few will have very long waiting times. We will model and analysis of insurance based on claim inter-arrival time, the time interval between two successive claims and the ability to carry out such modeling was limited by a lack of ecologically relevant data collected on claims inter-arrival. We propose a structured process behavior model based on data from Egyptian fire insurance company. Our analysis shows that claim activities can be represented by non-Poisson processes and that the subsequent distribution of inter-arrival activity times follows the Pareto distribution. These results will help researchers understand daily behavioral trends and create more sophisticated predictive models of claims.

مؤلف البحث
Mohamed hanafy
تاريخ البحث
مستند البحث
jfrm_2020092816200497.pdf (826.83 كيلوبايت)
مجلة البحث
Journal of Financial Risk Management,
مؤلف البحث
صفحات البحث
314:333
عدد البحث
9
موقع البحث
10.4236/jfrm.2020.93017